Hardware Analysis - It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

Blu-Ray disc prices to remain at a premium through 2008

john albrich — 2008-04-11T21:26:47-05:00

Interesting development

http://timesonline.typepad.com/technology/2008/04/where-are-all-t.html
April 08, 2008
Where are all the Blu-ray discs?

Call it a casualty of winning the war too soon. Now that Sony's Blu-ray technology has emerged the victor....It looks as if there is no chance there will be enough Blu-ray discs to meet global demand this year.... The top producer is Sony itself. Sony DADC's unit is investing in extended production line capacity to produce 38 million discs per month by October. This would meet just 60 to 70 per cent of global forecast demand.... With production capacity being outstripped so far by demand, expect disc prices to remain at a premium.

Comment from a reader:
"I suspect that this was considered long ago...
If you win the market and you have a strangle hold on the market, the last thing you want to do is meet demand. Why produce ten items for for a small profit when you can produce 1 for a large profit!"

Could electron-spin memory replace Blu-Ray earlier than anticipated?

john albrich — 2008-04-11T14:16:53-05:00

john albrich said:

...I believe Blu-ray will be replaced by another storage technology before such large capacity optical disc storage is required in general computing....

Blu-Ray as a R/W technology just has too many negatives going for it long-term (big ones=cost and size of device and medium)

Enter...electron-spin memory.

"IBM said the technology was still "exploratory" at this stage, but that it expected devices which used it to be on the market within ten years."

If the technology proves viable, I believe the research will be vastly accelerated by the industry and it will happen faster than that.

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/arti...728060.ece
So-called 'racetrack' memory uses the 'spin' of an electron to store data, and can operate far more quickly than regular hard drives. (and much much more quickly than optical drives)

Like flash memory - the most advanced type of memory for small devices such as mobile phones - it has no moving parts, meaning that the problems associated with mechanical reliability are dramatically reduced.

Unlike flash, however, it can 'write data' - or store information - extremely quickly, and does not have the 'wear out' mechanism...

At present the most capacious iPod - the 160GB (about 6 or 7 Blu-Ray discs) iPod Classic - can store 40,000 songs.

Dr Parkin (Stuart Parkin, the IBM fellow who led the research) said that racetrack memory could lead to the development of 'three-dimensional micro-electronics', breaking with the tradition of scientists trying to fit an ever greater number on transistors on an ultra-thin piece of silicon shaped like a wafer.

Coda: Possible names for the new memory
ESMem, esMem, eSpin, SpinRAM, SpinMem, esRAM, RaceMem, RaceRAM, RtMem, RtRAM.
I'm placing these names in the public domain if not already the IP of some other entity.
(although strictly speaking it's not true RAM, the legacy acronym might still be used)

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

Adam Kolak — 2008-03-27T21:22:32-05:00

Many also credit VHS's format war victory over Betamax due to better support from the Adult Film Industry.

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

john albrich — 2008-03-27T10:38:12-05:00

Now we see the real reason why Blu-Ray finally beat HD-DVD!

Sony finally figured out a way to side-step Walt Disney Company's policy of no-disc production from porn disc manufacturers...which had pretty much ruled-out all Blu-Ray disc manufacturers for awhile. Note the dates correspond to just months prior to final HD-DVD defeat.

Creative positioning, Sony! Way to take a firm stand Walt Disney Company!

30July2007
http://www.networkworld.com/news/2007/073007-japanese-porn-ind...u-ray.html
Japanese porn industry embraces Blu-ray Disc
The HD DVD high-definition movie format may have the lead in the U.S. porn industry, but Japanese adult film makers have turned decisively to Blu-ray Disc, breathing new life into its bid to replace DVDs as the disc of choice for home movies.

Sony Corp. has started offering more technical support to the adult film industry in Japan, movie makers said at the Adult Treasure Expo 2007 in Chiba, Japan, and the problem of finding companies to mass produce their movies appears to be over.

04October2007
10 to 1 Blu-Ray to HD-DVD Porn Disc Manufacturers
http://www.wired.com/ (the rest of the link details can't be entered here apparently because HWA thinks it's some kind of spamming address...pretty odd, actually...you'll have to dig down to find the actual article. Go to the Culture>>Lifestyle then look for the Headline item about Blu-Ray)
"...but until recently Blu-ray had made a limp start on both sides of the Pacific. Part of the problem is that Blu-ray backer Walt Disney Co. won't allow its movies to be replicated by any company that also presses porn. And until recently, ALL the (Blu-Ray) disc stampers were owned by Sony subsidiaries.

According to IDG News, Sony has sidestepped the problem by helping Taiwanese companies set up their own Blu-ray pressing facilities for the Japanese adult industry. There are now at least 10 Japanese porn movies out on Blu-ray disc, compared to one HD DVD skin flick."

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

john albrich — 2008-03-25T01:59:54-05:00

Interesting item. Kind of relates to the "console wars" discussion earlier in this thread at:
http://www.hardwareanalysis.com/content/topic/70757/?o=40#530000

Also talks to the requirements of different kinds of users...not just the stay-at-home video/gaming addict.

http://timesonline.typepad.com/technology/2008/03/playstation-3-h.html
Why Blu-ray may not boost the PS3
"A big jump in PlayStation 3 sales has been forecast for this year, based on Blu-ray emergence as the dominant format in the high-definition war. If you are after a new player, the PS3 a relatively cheap option, given that it's also a powerful games machine.

This argument raises the question of whether the HD battle was really about disc formats. "

"I'm not sure that I'll be looking for a new type of disc to replace my DVDs. What I'll probably want is HD downloads. I already convert a lot of my kids' DVDs to .avi format so that when we go on holiday I can take my laptop and hook it up to a hotel TV, saving the hassle of carrying around a load of discs that won't work in DVD players in other contries(sic)."

"In the same way that Real, Windows Media Player and Quicktime were all were busy fighting over online video formats while the now-ubiquitous Flash player crept up behind them, Blu-ray may well end up being a format that gets killed off by downloads before it takes hold."

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

Adam Kolak — 2008-02-25T00:42:22-05:00

john albrich said:

Tam-the-Bam said:

I feel sad for the HD A lot of folks have bought HD hardware dvd players, etc. It's like the VHS/BETAMAX all over again.

Except this time, "Mr. Rootkit" won.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Sony_BMG_CD_copy_protection_scandal

Yeah after about forty failed formats, it appears that Rootkit, Inc. has finally won a format war.

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

john albrich — 2008-02-24T22:49:11-05:00

Tam-the-Bam said:

I feel sad for the HD A lot of folks have bought HD hardware dvd players, etc. It's like the VHS/BETAMAX all over again.

Except this time, "Mr. Rootkit" won.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Sony_BMG_CD_copy_protection_scandal

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

Tam the Bam — 2008-02-24T21:29:09-05:00

I feel sad for the HD A lot of folks have bought HD hardware dvd players, etc.
It's like the VHS/BETAMAX all over again.

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

Adam Kolak — 2008-02-24T20:15:31-05:00

Assuming the Xbox 360 used HD-DVD inside from the beginning and PS3 used Blu-ray inside from the beginning, even if HD-DVD won (which it most likely would have) the format war, you would still have Blu-Ray around because it would still be used for PS3 games. And if Blu-Ray won the format war, you would still have HD-DVD around for the Xbox 360 games. But Microsoft had no interest in HD-DVD it seems, they were really trying to push HD content over the internet via downloads.

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

Brendan Gonsalves — 2008-02-24T19:42:11-05:00

Adam Kolak said:

We would have had ourselves a console war and a format war that were very intertwined with each other. And even if either format lost, it would still be used in that console as the game media which means, we could have been more likely to have a two format industry if that were the case.

That would be interesting but in the business world (in term of this type of technology), one always come out on top.

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

Adam Kolak — 2008-02-24T19:08:26-05:00

It could have lost, but it could have won. No one really knows, but had the Xbox 360 had built in HD-DVD from the beginning, I am certain that we would still have ourselves a format war today. Whether HD-DVD would have won is questionable, but I would bet my money that it would have if that were the case.

We would have had ourselves a console war and a format war that were very intertwined with each other. And even if either format lost, it would still be used in that console as the game media which means, we could have been more likely to have a two format industry if that were the case.

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

Brendan Gonsalves — 2008-02-24T18:54:24-05:00

Adam Kolak said:

Brendan Gonsalves said:

Adam Kolak said:

Brendan Gonsalves said:

Good thing the Xbox 360 did not have built-in support for HD-DVD or Microsoft would have had to redesign it yet again.

I'm pretty sure that if Xbox 360 had built in HD-DVD support from the beginning, things would have most likely gone the other way since there would be 18 million more HD-DVD players on the market if that was the case.

That may be true but many people don't care about the HD movie scene enough to invest an additional $150 just to be able play them on their gaming console. Like many others, I prefer to keep the two devices separate.

It worked out for the PS3.

The PS3 having built in support was one many factors why Blu-ray won. The Xbox could of had built in support and HD-DVD still would of lost due to other factors.

Some of these factors include company reputation, consumer preference and the way large businesses/corporations invest their money in a particular HD standard.

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

john albrich — 2008-02-24T18:51:13-05:00

Brendan Gonsalves said:

...Like many others, I prefer to keep the two devices separate.

Although I do have my PC connected to my Home Theatre, I prefer to be also able to use my home theatre video equipment separately from my PC video equipment (for 3 reasons...noise of the computer, in case my computer is down for some reason, in case I'm using the computer for other work).

In addition, I have a cheap DVD mobile player for use on trips.

I paid US$50 (on sale) for my mobile Polaroid DVD player (with a full 8" diagonal screen).

I wonder how much the first Blu-Ray mobile video player is going to cost?

How long will it be before I can buy a Blu-Ray mobile player for $50?

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

Adam Kolak — 2008-02-24T18:37:48-05:00

Brendan Gonsalves said:

Adam Kolak said:

Brendan Gonsalves said:

Good thing the Xbox 360 did not have built-in support for HD-DVD or Microsoft would have had to redesign it yet again.

It worked out for the PS3.

Re: It's official - Toshiba bows out of HD-DVD

Brendan Gonsalves — 2008-02-24T18:32:38-05:00

Adam Kolak said:

Brendan Gonsalves said:

Good thing the Xbox 360 did not have built-in support for HD-DVD or Microsoft would have had to redesign it yet again.